Are you kidding me? BYU Men’s hoops possibly going to the Big Dance?
This is just shocking. BYU Men’s Hoops finished the regular season by winning 10 out of its final 11 games. The win Saturday lifted the team to the coveted 20-win plateau and a tie for second place in the Mountain West conference. Finishing the regular season with a 20-7 record is an amazing performance for a team picked to finish dead last in the pre-season polls. I am happily eating crow over my 15-12 prediction and the Cougs are now a legitimate bubble team for inclusion to the NCCA Tournament.
So are the Cougs a lock for the Big Dance? Nope. My guess is that the NCAA tournament will take two MWC teams but not three. SDSU won the regular season conference title and has the best chance of making it to the Big Dance without getting the automatic bid that comes with winning the MWC conference tournament. Air Force and BYU are the two next best teams and odds are pretty good that one of those three teams will get the automatic bid. If BYU manages to win the MWC tournament it would give the Cougars the automatic bid and a 13-1 streak to end the season which might even earn the Cougs a 9-11 seed rather than the traditional 12 seed they have been receiving in recent years. If SDSU wins the tourney I suspect that BYU will need to do better than AFA to get an at-large invite (and since AFA already has 23 wins that is no lock either). If anyone other than BYU or SDSU wins the MWC tourney I suspect it will be good bye Big Dance and hello NIT for the Cougs.
BYU is seeded third in the MWC tourney and plays Utah, the only team to beat them in the last 11 games, on Wednesday. If the Cougs can get past the Utes it may meet up with AFA in the second round. Obviously the Cougs have a lot at stake with the conference tournament this week. One thing I am pretty certain of — none of the MWC teams are anxious to face this red-hot BYU squad right now. Keep your eyes on ESPN2 Coug fans — March Madness has arrived and there is a lot more at stake for BYU this week than most of us imagined possible.
BTW — Remember that post I put up about attendance dipping lately? Attendance on Saturday at the Marriott Center was nearly 21,000. Attendance problem solved. Funny how a fast paced style and a winning team will do that. Kudos to first-year head coach Dave Rose!
The Ladies
The BYU Women’s team recently took its shiny new #16 national ranking into Albuquerque to play the #19 ranked Lobos and had their heads handed to them after losing a star player to a twisted knew early on. They still will be the top seed in the MWC tournament and will be a lock for the women’s NCAA tournament. Let’s hope everyone is ready to play.
Men’s Volleyball
The volleyball team is has been celebrating its #1 ranking by crushing opponents. The latest victim was Stanford. The juggernaut that is BYU Men’s V-Ball rolls on. Look for another Final Four run from them this year.
That’s a pretty impressive change for a first year coach. I don’t follow BYU hoops much. Is it mostly the coach or are there a few star players?
Comment by Clark Goble — March 6, 2006 @ 12:32 pm
Clark,
I think it is a combination of some good new players and a good new coach who employs a system that is utilizing the players correctly. Steve Cleveland was also a good coach and he left the cupboard well-stocked for Coach Rose. BYU has landed some big recruits in the last few years and they are starting to shine now. The sprinting style BYU has employed this season is also throwing opponents off because it is so unlike anything league coaches have ever seen from BYU. In some ways it is sort of like how Gary Crowton came in and cleaned up in his first year with a new style. But in other important ways it is very different that Crowton’s football experience. For one, Dave Rose was an assistant coach who was promoted so there is much better continuity for this team. Another difference is that this BYU team has only one senior and a few freshmen stars so don’t be surprised if we see BYU picked to win the conference for the next 2-3 years. Any way you look at it, the future is bright for this team.
Comment by Geoff J — March 6, 2006 @ 1:37 pm
Can’t congratulate you folks enough. I think BYU might still need to win that tournament. The RPI is still a little (lot?) high for an at-large. Three games in three days is doable, though. I don’t see that there’s anyone out there that they can’t beat.
The problem is that I don’t think their resume stacks up well against any of the MVC schools other than maybe Creighton. Some things to keep an eye on:
1) Hope that Colorado loses in the Big XII first round and that Texas A&M loses their first as well.
2) Obviously, no conference tourney upsets.
3) Get UAB out of C-USA first, although I think they’ll get in anyway.
4) I’ll post others when I’m not late for something else…….
Comment by D-Train — March 6, 2006 @ 2:36 pm
D-Train,
Interesting points. I’ve seen BYU in the “last 4 out” list in a couple of places but all of them assumed AFA was in. I was assuming that even if SDSU wins the conference tourney BYU could have an excellent chance of getting an at large bid if they beat AFA but lost in the finals. But I think you are right that anything short of three more wins is very risky for the Cougs. In any case, this 10-1 streak has surely helped BYUs chances tremendously. The selection committee often rewards theams that get hot at the end of the season.
BTW — Where are you getting your RPI numbers?
Comment by Geoff J — March 6, 2006 @ 3:53 pm
CollegeRPI.com has real time numbers and “nitty gritty” reports that the committee sees (listed as “gory details” on the website menu). NCAAsports.com has official numbers, but they’re always way behind.
We’ll know a lot more about BYU’s at large chances by Friday. Bottom line for them is that winning is all they can do and three wins would be huge. You’re right that BYU can effectively jump USAFA with a victory in the MWC. I think they still need to clear out about five to seven teams above them and winning two games to get to the finals might not be quite enough. I think a first round ACC win would probably be enough for Florida State. A&M/Colorado is a no-win for BYU. There’s just no way that Baylor will beat them both, which would be the only way that the Big XII sees only three bids. ‘Cuse needs to lose that first rounder against Cincinnati. UAB needs to lose fast in C-USA, but Rice or SMU figure to be bird bait for them. Utah State probably also needs a pretty quick loss. That’s a lot to ask, but anything’s possible this time of year. And who knows who’ll play their way onto the bubble?
Just win, baby.
Comment by D-Train — March 7, 2006 @ 1:07 am
I actually think it would be a lot more fun to win the NIT than to go out against a 5 seed in the first round. But whatever happens, it’s an impressive year for the cougs.
Comment by Eric Russell — March 7, 2006 @ 4:01 am
A loss to Utah last in the first round of the MWC tourney ended any hopes of going to tbe big dance. NIT seems likely enough though I suppose… In any case, the year must be considered a major success. With only one senior this team is primed to make some real noise next season.
Comment by Geoff J — March 10, 2006 @ 11:32 am