BYU Football: Back in Black
BYU Football, say hello to an old friend. Her name is Winning. I know most of you players haven’t met her yet — she hasn’t been around for three years or so — but we want to make her feel welcome.
Yep, after three years in the red, BYU guaranteed it will end the season in the black by beating a tough but error prone Wyoming team 35-21 in cold, windy and unfriendly Laramie on Saturday. As usual the offense looked solid, the defense looked shaky, and the special teams looked even shakier. Nevertheless, the Cougs pulled out the win so all is right. Our prodigal friend, Winning, has come home.
I waited to watch the replay of the game on BYU TV tonight before posting on it. Here is what I saw:
Offense
The offense looked great. BYU could have racked up more points if needed, but they opted to grind it out on the ground and run time off the clock. In fact, BYU held the ball amost twice as long as Wyoming (see the box score here.)
Defense
The defense came up with a full 5 turnovers so I can’t complain about them too much. My primary concern is that 3-4 of those turnovers were not caused by defense so much as they were gifts from Wyoming. We’ll take gifts of course, but in a bowl game we may not have such a luxury. Wyoming was beating up our defense about as well as we were beating up theirs. The total yards gained were about equal for both teams. Those cowpokes just ended up shooting their own feet as much as anything else. I think that the defensive weakness is still a scary thing for this team. If BYU wants to win that bowl game they had better figure that problem out.
Having said that, Justin Luettgerordt had a monster game recovering 3 fumbles and also coming up with a pretty interception (and he happens to be the leader in the USA Today player of the Week poll right now as well – be sure to go vote Cougar fans (hat tip Eric Russell)). Every week lately someone in the D-Line or linebackers has been having a monster game. That is good because the secondary remains … ummm… suspect.
Special Teams
Missed field goals, shanked punts, near fumbles… The best thing the special teams did Saturday was avoid losing the game for the team. These groups really need to improve as well. The offense is excellent but as we learned against TCU and Notre Dame, they can’t win every game alone.
Next
I have been predicting a 6-5 year all along. At this point a 7-4 year looks more likely than not. Utah is coming to Provo at 5-5 and they are hobbling. They lost their starting QB and a top receiver to injuries last week. Nevertheless, don’t expect an easy game for the Cougs. With a BYU’s weak defense even backup quarterbacks start looking like All-Americans at times. Further, Utah has traditionally been strong on defense so if they can keep BYU in the 20s they have a legitimate chance at stealing the game. All it takes is a few big plays on offense and special teams by Utah and BYU could find themselves in trouble. And Utah will be plenty motivated. If they lose on Saturday they will have a losing season and will not go to a bowl game. That is an especially difficult pill to swallow for a team that went 12-0 and won a BCS bowl game last season. The Utes may be wounded, but they are still quite dangerous.
But the fact is that they have beaten BYU three years in a row and ensured a losing season for the Cougs last year so you can be sure that BYU will not be giving away the game. Honestly… I hope BYU beats ‘em by 40+.
Great news! Oh, how I miss watching BYU on Saturdays.
How’s Beck looking lately? Has his accuracy improved? What kinds of passes is he completing?
Is the defensive approach significantly different from early in the season? The couple of games I saw they were blitzing a lot, but not getting to the QB, which exposed the weak secondary even more. Are they still blitzing a lot or are they dropping more men back into coverage? Or are they actually getting to the QB?
I hope the bowl game will be broadcast nationally.
Comment by Brother Tom — November 15, 2005 @ 11:10 am
Lets hope for the Cougs and ASU in the Liberty bowl!
Comment by jay s — November 15, 2005 @ 12:52 pm
Bro. Tom: How’s Beck looking lately? Has his accuracy improved? What kinds of passes is he completing?
Beck looks great actually. His game has really come together nicely. No interceptions, excellent reads of hte defense, and he appears to be in sync nicely with his receivers. He has become excellent at managing the offense I think. Best of all was the 44 yard scramble he had in the second half.
My only complaint on Saturday was that he overthrew Watkins on a couple of wide open long bombs. Part of that might have been the wind, but BYU would really benefit if they got the timing on that play down again.
The defense has stopped blitzing so much and again that led to one or both of the interceptions. But there is a price to not stacking the box too with WYO racking up some pretty good rushing numbers. Calling it a “bend but don’t break” defense sounds great when you don’t break, but I fear that it was as much BYU bounces that prevented the breaking as anything else.
Jay – I’m with you. Here in AZ I would have a lot easier time finding buddies to go to a Vegas or San Diego bowl game with me (something I a m considering) if ASU was the opponent.
Comment by Geoff J — November 15, 2005 @ 1:16 pm
Those communists! The USA Today guys both voted UCLA quarterback Drew Olson, meaning that he won – even though he only finished with 8% of the popular vote.
Comment by Eric Russell — November 15, 2005 @ 1:35 pm
I miss watching the games too. I work every Saturday, so the best I can do is “see” gametracker on the internet. I enjoy Geoff’s analysis and would love to see Az and BYU. My son Bret my have to re-think his student teaching stint in Vegas if the bowl game is there!
Comment by Don — November 15, 2005 @ 1:36 pm
I was at the BYU-UNLV game and the coug fan turnout was impressive. It seemed like the entire east half of the stadium was in blue. The UNLV fans showed up late and left early. This is only my 3rd BYU away game, and by far the most concentrated turnout. (The other two were BYU at the U and BYU at UVA in 2001. The UVA game was a trip, my first foray into southern football. Everyone in orange, Thousands tailgating etc. Made the 4th quarter victory that much sweeter for our drive back to dc)
I think the Liberty Bowl Organizers are pushing for a BYU/ASU game, because of their attendance reqs. They have to maintain an average of 25k per game and to maintain the contract have to get 29,000 and change at this years game. Now TCU’s stellar performance this year would be a draw, but a Cougar/Sun Devil matchup would surely draw the crowds.
Comment by jay s — November 15, 2005 @ 2:40 pm
Cougs/AzState would be fun. They were a main rival before they left the WAC. They weren’t very good their last WAC year and we had a big banner to greet them: “Why are you leaving the WAC when you’re at the bottom of the PAC.” This was pre-LVE stadium and our band was in the south end zone’s bleachers. When we had short and goal at that end of the field, the opposing defenders had our team in front of them and the band 20 yards behind them, playing the theme from “Jaws.” Great spectacle. I still get excited at the mention of a game with ASU.
BTW, ASU was the last team to hold BYU scoreless before that record scoring streak. UCLA had the scoring-streak record before BYU. Their streak was ended by — ASU.
In watching the replay last night of the Wyoming game, I noticed an entertaining improvement in our punting. 348-lb Brian Sanders was in the back field and would run up into the oncoming rushers, knocking them back like a bowling ball through the pins. He’s an entirely acceptable solution to our blocked punts.
Comment by manaen — November 15, 2005 @ 3:12 pm
I can’t believe I typed LIberty Bowl – I meant Las Vegas Bowl. Oops.
Comment by jay s — November 15, 2005 @ 4:25 pm
Geoff,
I agree that Beck has looked better in the last six games. I think the biggest difference is consistency.
Beck’s average passing efficiency has improved:
First three Divsion 1A games (EIU is excluded)
average pass effificency: 123.54
Last 6 Games:
average pass efficiency: 151.18
This is a pretty big difference, and it suggests Beck is playing much better. However, I think it is slightly misleading. Some of the difference is due to playing weaker defenses.
First three Divsion 1A games (EIU is excluded)
average season-to-date defensive pass effificency of the opponent: 107.84
Last 6 Games:
average season-to-date defensive pass effificency of the opponent: 136.17
Thus, one reason why Beck has looked better is that the defenses he has faced have been weaker on average (although certainly the above measure is imperfect; for example, it does not take out BYU’s contribution to the season-to-date average). If you look at residual efficiency (the portion of Beck’s passing efficiency that cannot be explained by the season-to-date defensive pass efficiency of the opponent), the difference is smaller:
First three Divsion 1A games (EIU is excluded)
average residual effificency: -5.81
Last 6 Games:
average residual efficiency: 2.91
Still, there is evidence of improvement (I think it would be slightly bigger if I had a better measure of defensive quality). However, I think the biggest difference comes when you look at the variance in passing efficiency. In the last 6 games, Beck’s has had 5 games with an efficiency rating over 140, and only 2 games with a negative residual efficiency (and then only midly negative). Beck has been very consistent in the last 6 games. His average once you control for defensive quality is slightly improved, but his consistency has been much better.
Comment by Karl D. — November 15, 2005 @ 5:58 pm
Nice pulls once again Karl. I am not surprised to see the pass efficiency ratings have gone up. The offense certainly has done nicely in that period. I think the offensive output of the TCU game probably pushes the first three games higher anyway.
The pass efficiency rating doesn’t accurately capture the things like Beck and company’s real (and probably season saving) heroics in the 4th quarter of the New Mexico game. That seemed to be the breakthrough moment for this offense. It also doesn’t show things like Beck’s huge run in the second half on Saturday (at least I don’t think it does…) Something changed psychologically in these Cougs at that New Mexico game and ever since them they look like the swaggering Cougs of yesteryear. It is a great thing to see as a fan.
Comment by Geoff J — November 15, 2005 @ 7:08 pm
Can anyone explain how the current MWC bowl situation is set up? It’s kind of confusing. It seems to me that BYU would only go to Las Vegas if TCU were invited to another bowl – which may or may not happen. It looks like it’s just as likely that BYU could play Cal in the Emerald Bowl.
And why not have the MWC champ play the WAC champ? TCU vs. Fresno State would be a good game. Instead, it looks like they’ll both by playing mid-level BCS teams. And actually, MWC #2 vs. WAC #2 wouldn’t be too bad either. BYU vs. Boise State would be a good game too.
Comment by Eric Russell — November 16, 2005 @ 2:52 am
Wow- you guys know a lot about football.
Comment by Jordan Fowles — November 16, 2005 @ 10:17 am
Eric,
From what I can gather, the MWC is locked in with 3 bowls and the Las Vegas Bowl gets first pick (I’m not sure if the Emeral Bowl or Poinsettia Bowl get second…) Unlike recent years, there is no bowl that is a lock for the conference champ. The dilemma the Las Vegas Bowl (and MWC) face is that the LV Bowl wants BYU but it might look a little dicey to snub a top 15 TCU to get BYU. MWC officials are hoping that TCU will end up with an at-large invite to the Liberty Bowl or Houston Bowl. It looks likely enough that they will. But the picture remains murky with several teams in several conferences determining bowl eligibility this weekend. It will probably take several weeks of back-room wheeling and dealing before this mess gets sorted out.
Man I can’t wait until they dump this corrupt fiasco of a bowl system and start a playoff!
Comment by Geoff J — November 16, 2005 @ 10:21 am
I think they’d love BYU, but I agree that it is hard to see them not picking TCU, despite the lower attendance. (Heck, there were more BYU fans at the UNLV game than there were Vegas fans!)
Geoff, the one thing I’m really excited about is next year with the offense. Yeah the defense may, if anything, be worse. But the offense really has come together and perhaps shed the psychological problems of the past 3 years.
Comment by Clark Goble — November 16, 2005 @ 5:06 pm
Clark,
The situation is complicated a bit by the fact that the Las Vegas Bowl must have high attendence this year to remain a bowl. The following is from aTribune article last week:
Comment by Karl D. — November 16, 2005 @ 5:36 pm
Here are some additional good quotes from the article in today’s Las Vegas Review-Journal:
Comment by Geoff J — November 16, 2005 @ 7:47 pm
The game I’d like to watch over and over is that one Saturday against Utah. Or maybe a reel of the last four years. Do you think they’ll sell that at the BYU Bookstore?
Say hello to an old friend: a meal of crow.
Comment by the danite — November 21, 2005 @ 11:20 am
Lol!
Well I at least hedged my bets and did not predict a Cougar victory outright (even if I hoped for one). In some ways I should be happy that my long standing 6-5 prediction was accurate and that my reasons that Utes might win (presented in the penultimate paragraph of the post) proved to be prescient. So while I’m not personally eating much crow I am a bit bummed.
Nevertheless, congratulations to the Utes and coach Whittingham… they are in the black this year now as well.
(Hey, at least my other team, SDSU, pulled out another victory on Saturday…)
Comment by Geoff J — November 21, 2005 @ 11:59 am
And if BYU wins a bowl game, what does that do to my prediction you made fun of all those weeks ago? (grin)
Comment by Clark Goble — November 21, 2005 @ 2:31 pm
So true Clark! I hope you are wrong though.
7-5 is much better than 6-6
Comment by Geoff J — November 21, 2005 @ 2:42 pm