BYU Football – Meet the Bloggernacle
The BYU Cougars are hosting the Horned Frogs of TCU this Saturday. It ought to be a telling game for the 2005 version of the BYU football team.
Before I get started, I should explain that I decided I would contribute to the Bloggernacle Times by writing some sports posts. I have noticed that rabid obsessing over sports has been absent from the Bloggernacle until now and I thought I might help rectify that problem. Since this is the Bloggernacle Times I won’t cover all sports – just the sports that relate somehow to Mormons (and that I feel like writing about of course).
So on to the BYU football team… Here is a short five year recap for you: The legendary Lavell Edwards retired after the 2000 football season. BYU, having coldly snubbed offensive coordinator Norm Chow in his expressed desire to become head coach, hired former Chicago Bears offensive coordinator as head coach instead. (And good thing too – Whatever happened to old Norm anyway? It’s a good thing all administrative decisions at BYU are inspired by God himself!) Anyhow Gary Crowton showed up and with a veteran team, loads of talent, a schedule filled with of twinkies, and an offensive scheme that surprised the competition, he and the Cougs won 12 straight games and found themselves ranked in the top ten in the nation. Things were going just as planned! Then something went “Sproingâ€. BYU got crushed in the season finale and again in their bowl game. Then they proceeded to suffer their first losing season in nearly 30 years in 2002. Then they did it again. Then they did it again – with the third straight losing season including the added bonus of all sorts of sex scandals for BYU players. Guess what happened to Gary Crowton next? Yep, he got Resigned (apparently that is BYU-speak for “cannedâ€).
So that brings us to 2005. New head coach Bronco Mendenhall (yep, that’s really his name) was promoted from his defensive coordinator position. Never mind that he was probably the 4th-5th choice on BYU’s list — he had a great off-season. He talked up the things the Cougar faithful wanted to hear – bringing back tradition, discipline, all out effort, etc. He even consulted with Lavell Edwards on occasion – something Crowton reportedly never did.
So here we are in the 2005 season. BYU got soundly spanked at home by a superior Boston College team in the opener (losing by the score of 20-3). The offense moved the ball relatively well between the 20s – they just couldn’t generate any touchdowns. The defense played pretty well overall too. The second game of the season was against a Division 1-AA school from Illinois. The Cougs won and even scored a few touchdowns – and they enjoyed doing it even if it was against a JV team. Then they got a Bye last week (I had to laugh at the headlines reading “Bye week could not have come at a better timeâ€â€¦. Ummm, ok…)
And that brings us to this week’s game against TCU. The Horned Frogs opened the season with a shocking upset of #3 Oklahoma in Norman. They followed that by laying an egg against a mediocre SMU team and losing decisively (losing their 1-week top 25 spot in the process as well). Then a solid Utah team came to town and TCU responded by ending the Utes’ 18 game winning streak. So where does that leave BYU? We shall see this Saturday I guess. If BYU can beat TCU it will be a good win over a solid team. But I am skeptical. In the forthcoming posts we can talk about BYU football and what is right and wrong with this team. (You know you have been dying to talk about this…)
My prediction for this week: BYU 17, TCU 24. I hope I am wrong, but I just don’t see the Cougs pulling it all together yet. What do you think?
BYU 13, TCU 10.
It will be a defensive game. I think both of these defenses are stronger than each of the offenses and the strongest defense will win the day. I also don’t think TCU is as good as the hype. I think Oklahoma and U*** are significantly weaker this year – and both were fairly close wins. I also think BYU is better than it was against BC. Anae’s first ever game as OC was against a pretty good BC defense, and I think he’s learning. And the team is still learning his offense. I really do see a BYU win here, though it will be close.
Comment by Eric Russell — September 20, 2005 @ 8:44 am
All I can say is that I’m glad to see BYU has returned to their classic uniforms. No wonder they kept losing.
BYU 24, TCU 21
Comment by Rusty — September 20, 2005 @ 9:10 am
BYU 9, TCU 24
And those 9 come on 3 field goals. BYU has not yet scored a touchdown on a division I-A opponent, and I don’t think it happens this week.
Comment by Randy B. — September 20, 2005 @ 10:41 am
“Then something went “Sproingâ€. BYU got crushed in the season finale and again in their bowl game.”
Um…”Crack” is more like it. Team MVP Luke Staley broke his leg at the end of the Mississippi State game right before the Hawaii loss. That (and 8 turnovers) sealed BYU’s fate the rest of the season. (QB Doman was hurt in the bowl game as well…)
BYU’s biggest problem in the Crowton era is that he wasn’t the kind of guy who yelled at players or instilled discipline. Bronco’s that kind of guy–and add in a handful of experienced skill players–and that should be all BYU needs to have a winning season (albeit with a few growing pains along the way)
Comment by Kevin — September 20, 2005 @ 11:23 am
Growing up I was a Cougars fan. Then I put away childish things and got true religion, a dark, tragic religion to be sure, but also one filled with moments of joy…..
Go Bears!
Comment by William Morris — September 20, 2005 @ 11:32 am
Kevin,
Of course that is true about Doman and Staley — however I think that their injuries only accentuated Gary Crowton’s weaknesses. Each of his teams started strongly but finished the season weakly. They seemed to get worse throughout the season instead of better in the Crowton years. If Bronco can just get his teams to make progress over the course of the season instead of becoming increasingly pathetic it will be a major step in the right direction.
Comment by Geoff J — September 20, 2005 @ 11:54 am
I think Crowton does great with a talented team but isn’t that great at developing talent. In a way his skills are better suited to where he is now with the Ducks.
As for BYU this year. I’m not convinced their offense can handle a remotely strong defense. I actually think both the offense and defense performed better last year under Crowton than now. (Remember BYU had an amazingly tough schedule last year and did surprisingly well even against #1)
Comment by Clark Goble — September 20, 2005 @ 12:13 pm
BYU 14 TCU 24
I wish we had Norm Chow back. That was probably the biggest mistake the “inspired” leaders have made in BYU sports since Johny Miller finished golfing there. Norm is continuing to show he knows offense!
As for BYU and this season, we’ll probably have to chalk it up to being a growing season and wait until next year.
Comment by Don — September 20, 2005 @ 12:51 pm
I’m with you Clark. Crowton was clearly good at preparing for the start of a season — it was the mid-late season performance of his teams that stunk. The jury is still out on this new offense (and on the skill players — except for Watkins). That is why this the next couple of games will be so telling — is this team improving or not?
Comment by Geoff J — September 20, 2005 @ 12:55 pm
I fear you are right Don. I just worry about what 4 straight losing seasons will do to recruiting…
Comment by Geoff J — September 20, 2005 @ 1:03 pm
I think one thing BYU fans may just need to accept is that the way football has evolved the last decade along with the frank problems of recruiting players to BYU due to the honor code may mean that BYU football never will reclaim its glory years. Frankly BYU let players get away with a *lot*. I don’t think, especially after the big scandals of the last two years, that this will happen again. And that means getting good players will be much harder.
Why go to BYU when you could go to UofU and not be subject to the honor code?
Don’t get me wrong. I think BYU being less hypocritical about how athletes are treated is a good thing. And I don’t think it means we won’t have good teams. Just that it won’t be consistent.
I personally think though that BYU will be worse this year than last. I’ve not seen anything to suggest otherwise. Even last game their 3rd and to a degree 4th quarters were embarrassing considering who they were playing. Next year, when we loose most of our defense and receivers, I’m really worried about how we’ll do.
Comment by Clark Goble — September 20, 2005 @ 1:55 pm
Regarding Chow, I’ve heard mixed things from the players who worked under him. He definitely had favorites and ignored a lot of the rest. But there realistically was no way he was coming back here. There were some pretty amazingly screwed up things done to him by people at BYU. However as I said, a lot of players I knew weren’t enamored of him.
Once again, its one thing to coach a team where you know you’ll always have good recruiting. It’s quite an other to coach at a place like BYU where you have to make greatness out of far less resources. I think people are starting to realize that whatever his weaknesses, LaVelle had that amazing ability. (Although as I said, changes in football might mean that would just be intrinsically harder to repeat – I’m not sure the passing strategies of back in the day would work against today’s defenses)
Comment by Clark Goble — September 20, 2005 @ 1:58 pm
Wow Clark — now that is some real Cougar pessimism!
Of course you are right that Chow would not magically return BYU to glory. He could be a head coach now if he wanted so it could be that he knows better than anyone that it is better to be a great OC than a mediocre HC. He’s making millions a year with that path anyway and he’d be making a tiny fraction of that at BYU (it is just a job in the end right?)
As for recruiting struggles at BYU — that is a sword that cuts both ways. If BYU is a perennial regional powerhouse then I think there is a good chance they will land and keep the future Ben Olson’s. You know, the great Mormon athletes that intend to live the honor code lifestyle wherever they go to school (at least I assume that about Olson). If they are not a regional powerhouse then they will lose both the high end Mormons and non-Mormons due to the honor code. I think these unique factors leave less of a middle ground for the Cougs than for other schools like, say, SDSU or CSU.
Comment by Geoff J — September 20, 2005 @ 2:22 pm
I think Chow wouldn’t want to return to BYU because of how BYU treated him. Did you hear the interview with him back when BYU fans were hoping he’d replace Crowton? Ouch. And if even half the things he said were true I can fully understand. (Although as I said, I’ve heard other views as well)
BYU is pretty cheap, and that might have a lot to do with things as well. They pay way below the market for coaches. Of course the market of LDS coaches is pretty small, so maybe they could get away with that. Not that I think Mendenhall was a bad choice, and that was actually who I wanted. I just think BYU fans are a bit delusional about the problems with the program really being a coaching matter. While I’m not sure Crowton was ideal for the program, I also think he got a bit of a raw deal. Especially with all the problems in the athletics department. (Come on, reshuffling the department in the middle of the season???)
You’re point about recruiting active LDS is a good one. Although I think you overlook how important the non-superstars are. And to be honest, the tendency among BYU players is that they’re great the year they get off their mission. It’s during their Junior and Senior years that the trouble typically happens. It’s the non-LDS players who have trouble their Freshman and Sophomore years. Although there are exceptions such as Ty Detmer. (Who was actually in my stake when he got baptized)
I’m honestly amazed that some non-members join the church after seeing a lot of hypocrisy and double standards around the team. But there have been quite a few. And of course there have been some great players who stayed faithful through it all.
(And I don’t want to make it seem like the honor code problems are unique to the football program)
Comment by Clark Goble — September 20, 2005 @ 3:19 pm
How is it that you have an informed opinion about everything in the world, Clark?
Regarding overlooking non-superstars: I am working under the assumption that there will be a never-ending supply of serviceable non-star Mormon athletes to fill the rosters at BYU. But I think it takes stars to be an elite program so that is why I focus on them. I just don’t think a roster devoid of stars will be able to consistently contend for MWC conference titles and get to bowl games etc.
Comment by Geoff J — September 20, 2005 @ 3:41 pm
I think this is conventional wisdom, but I am not sure how fair it is. Crowton coached in 49 games. Here are the winning percentages broken down by the three parts of the season:
first 4 games of the year (16 games): 56.25%
games 5 to 8 of the year (16 games): 56.25%
games 9 — (17 games): 47.05%
Yes, there is a decline late in the year. However, there is no drop in the middle games. In addition, the difference between late and early in the year is not statistically significant (using a logit model where I control for opponents winning percentage , home field advantage, and qb experience).
Comment by Karl D — September 20, 2005 @ 4:39 pm
Niiiice, Karl D! Looks like you have Cougar stats galore…
How about comparing game 1 to the final game in the crowton era? Didn’t he go 4-0 in openers and 0-4 in season finales? (I can’t remember all the finales…)
Comment by Geoff J — September 20, 2005 @ 5:38 pm
Yes, that is correct. However, there is a dramatic difference between the opponents in terms of average quality:
Opponent’s Season Ending
Winning Percentage
Openers41.6%
Finales78.0%
Comment by Karl D — September 20, 2005 @ 6:18 pm
Dude – You are amazing!
Ok, but winning percentage can be misleading depending on the conference the opponent plays in. Weren’t 3 of 4 openers against BCS teams while 3 of 4 finales were against MWC teams (with Hawaii the exception?)
(Just plumbing the depths of Karl D knowledge…)
Comment by Geoff J — September 20, 2005 @ 6:26 pm
I used Louisville as the finale in 2001 instead of Hawaii. If you use Hawaii then the average opponent’s winning percentage in finales drops to 76% on average.
Comment by Karl D — September 20, 2005 @ 6:43 pm
Good point about using winning percentage; here is a break down using the Sagarin computer rating:
Finales Sagarin Average = 80.71 — this translates to a rank of about 23rd
Openers Sagarin Average = 69.4 — this translates to a rank of about 74th
Comment by Karl D — September 20, 2005 @ 6:49 pm
Not a big difference (between 76-78% that is) — the question is whether a .416 BCS team is better than a .760 MWC/WAC team. Perhaps we could say they are generally about the same in quality (Syracuse, ND, and GT are not generally considered slouches after all). But then that supports my original theory that Crowton teams got worse throughout the season.
Aside from the pure numbers what do you think?
Comment by Geoff J — September 20, 2005 @ 6:52 pm
BTW — have you calculated those opener/finale records minus the BYU game? The would be a more fair representation and it it would give us less of a spread in the winning percentage (one less win for finale opponents and one less loss for opener opponents)
Comment by Geoff J — September 20, 2005 @ 7:06 pm
Oops. I just digested the Sagarin data you gave. That does appear to support your point that the Cougs closed with stronger teams than they opened with (even if it is a bit exaggerated by including the BYU game in the mix)
Comment by Geoff J — September 20, 2005 @ 7:11 pm
I think the Sagarin ratings in post #21 are probably the best I can do in terms of answering your question. Computer ratings aren’t perfect, but they do control for things like between conference quality.
Comment by Karl D — September 20, 2005 @ 7:16 pm
Just to clarify, I don’t agree with Geoff that Crowton opened weak. I think Crowton had lots of problems. The first was starting up a program when your Freshmen (recruits) leave on a mission and come back out of shape. The second is, as I mentioned, all sorts of politics in the athletic department which I think put Crowton at a disadvantage. Then he had massive numbers of injuries. Finally I think there were just unrealistic expectations. Just as I think there are now. I merely hope that this time people give Mendenhall time to develop a team instead of expecting a winning record this year and next.
I think he could be a great coach. But I think the chances of us doing much better than .500 this year are small. I hope we do. But I’ve not seen anything yet to lead me to think otherwise. Not that I’m a football expert in the least. I can’t tell you the ins and outs. But thus far I don’t see consistency and I don’t see the psychological drive that our winning teams had. We don’t yet play as a team. And that was something Crowton also struggled at. He had his weaknesses, but really was given little chance to develop a team mentality (IMO).
As I said, I think BYU fans want to blame everything on the coaches whereas I honestly think other factors are much bigger.
Comment by Clark Goble — September 20, 2005 @ 7:26 pm
Actually, I do think the wins over Georgiia Tech and Notre Dame were impressive (even with hindsight). Tulane drags the winning percentage and the ratings down for the openers. The final Sagarin ranking for Tulane is 125 (behing some 1AA teams). Syracuse was not a good team either. The 2002 Syracuse team ended up with a Sagarin ranking of 77.
Comment by Karl D — September 20, 2005 @ 7:33 pm
Clark – I thought Crowton was a poor season finisher, not a poor season opener. (Or maybe he was a great opener and an average finisher?)
Overall I agree with you assessments though. Crowton had some cards stacked against him. I believe that without the high profile player sex scandals he would be trying again this year. I suspect Bronco will at least get 3-4 years to prove himself as well. It seems clear that nothing short of winning seasons and bowl games will allow him to keep his job though. I agree that the on field performance has not been encouraging so far in 2005. I think that is why this TCU game is so important — it will give everyone a good feel for where the team really is. With a Bye week to prepare there are no real excuses…
Comment by Geoff J — September 20, 2005 @ 7:46 pm
BTW — a nice write up on Gary Crowton and his success so far at Oregon in the SLTrib today.
Comment by Geoff J — September 20, 2005 @ 7:51 pm
I agree with Clark. If you just control for a few simple variables, then Crowton’s performance is statistically indistinguishable from BYU’s performance from 1996 to 1999 (chow last four years). Yes, Crowton looks bad measured relative to the glory years, but everyone does.
The following is the output from a linear regression using all the games that BYU played from 1976 to 2004. The dependent variable is points scored by BYU in a game:
—————————————————————————————–
scored | Coef. P-Value
——————————————————————————————
opp_win | -20.55306 0.000
neutral | -4.959173 0.084
home | 5.302493 0.000
chow | -4.981813 0.017
reynolds | -3.645113 0.385
crowton | -4.962895 0.021
lgp | 3.472113 0.000
replaced | -3.138329 0.125
intercept | 34.53416 0.000
————————————————————————————–
opp_win = opponents end of year winning percentage
neutral = dummy variable that equals one if game played on a neutral field
home = dummy variable that equals one if game played at home
chow = dummy variable that equals one if the year is from 1996 to 1999
reynolds = dummy variable that equals one if the year is 2000
crowton = dummy variable that equals one if the year is 2001 or greater
lgp = log of games played by starting quaterback
replaced = dummy variable that equals one if the quaterback was replaced due to injury
The Crowton years look a lot like the last four Chow years once we control for a few variables (at least in terms of offensive production).
Comment by Karl D — September 20, 2005 @ 8:10 pm
Val Hale said that, at the beginning of the 2004 season, the Athletic Department, along with Crowton, all decided that a winning season was a reasonable expectation for his continuance at BYU. So I think his dismissal would have happened with or without the sex scandal, although the scandal certainly cemented it.
Comment by Eric Russell — September 20, 2005 @ 9:11 pm
I do think not having a separate QB coach was a mistake for Crowton. I think he took too much on. (And I worry about Mendenall doing that as well) BTW – that SLT article was pretty interesting. I’m glad Crowton is doing well as I thought he got a bum deal here.
I’m looking forward to seeing how he does with his rematch with USC since I thought BYU did really well last year.
Comment by Clark Goble — September 20, 2005 @ 11:58 pm