Do Violent Movies Increase Crime?
There’s an interesting paper getting a lot of comment at various blogs. (I’ve seen it on about a half-dozen so I’ll hold off on the hat tip references, although I first saw it at Marginal Revolution) The paper is “Do Violent Movies Increase Crime?” The evidence is that they don’t.
Laboratory experiments in psychology find that exposure to media violence increases aggression. In this paper, we provide field evidence on this question. We exploit variation in violence of blockbuster movies between 1995 and 2002, and study the effect on same-day assaults. We find that violent crime decreases on days with higher theater audiences for violent movies. The effect is mostly driven by incapacitation: between 6PM and 12AM, an increase of one million in the audience for violent movies reduces violent crime by 1.5 to 2 percent. After the exposure to the movie, between 12AM and 6AM, crime is still reduced but the effect is smaller and less robust. We obtain similar, but noisier, results using data on DVD and VHS rentals. Overall, we find no evidence of a temporary surge in violent crime due to exposure to movie violence. Rather, our estimates suggest that in the short-run violent movies deter over 200 assaults daily. We discuss the endogeneity of releases. Potential interpretations for our results include a cathartic effect of movies, displacement of crime, and decrease in alcohol consumption. The differences with the experimental results may be due to experimental procedures, or to sorting into violent movies.
Probably the strongest counter-argument is that the effect is more subtle and long term. That is the major danger is a kind of numbing of viewers towards violence making it seem more justifiable. (One can’t help but wonder if Jack Bauer and 24 shaped American responses to American torture by the Bush administration, for example — although please let’s not thread jack into a debate about Bush and torture)
None of these studies are very convincing either way. I would imagine violence has a lot more to do with family/friends than media.
Comment by Rusty — October 23, 2006 @ 8:38 pm
I agree, Clark, that the effect would be long term. I think the argument would be based more along the porn arguments. i.e., people get accustomed to and develop a propensity towards certain types of stimuli.
Comment by J. Stapley — October 23, 2006 @ 9:47 pm
Well except that in both cases that would mean that they’d prefer the media to the real thing, which is the common argument by psychologists. That is they argue that yes there develops an attraction with associated cognitive excitements. (i.e. aggression for violent films or video games) But rather than go out into society to channel these excitements the excitement can be directed towards the media. Thus a reduction not an increase in violence or rape.
I suspect that one has to add in the notion that deterrence due to social values and of course criminal prosecution helps – especially when there is an alternative outlet.
Comment by Clark Goble — October 23, 2006 @ 10:25 pm
To add the counterpoint (hit enter too soon) the opposing view suggests that these habits can’t be confined to the media. Rather that under certain circumstances these behaviors kick in when a person not so exposed would not have these visceral reactions.
The other counterpoint is that what is of major concern isn’t the effect of such media on normal cognitively functioning adults but its effect on those with various degrees of mental illness. So one could point to say that guy in Quebec earlier in the month. In addition there are valid concerns for how a developing mind of a child reacts as opposed to a developed adult mind.
Comment by Clark Goble — October 23, 2006 @ 10:27 pm
I read somewhere long ago (I know, I know) about a study on children and violence on tv, and it found that violent behavior increased in children who were *already* agressively inclined. I’ve read about other studies that suggested other things, but this is the one I remember, because it rings most true to me.
Comment by Susan M — October 24, 2006 @ 9:48 am
So is this article saying there is less violent crime on days with higher movie attendance? Is it because those committing the violent crimes are at the movies? Seems like a really bad argument….
Comment by MW* — October 24, 2006 @ 10:21 am
This is only semi-related, but since J. Stapley drew the comparison between this and the porn arguments (#2), I’ll throw it out there.
A recent paper by a professor at the Northwestern University School of Law discusses a study that suggests that, just as violent media may not result in a tendency toward violence, exposure to pornography may not lead to sex crimes, as many of have asserted.
Here’s a link to a page from which you can download the article. It’s a pretty quick read (about 6 pages, I believe):
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=913013
Comment by Steve M. — October 24, 2006 @ 12:35 pm
As clarification, I’m not suggesting that it’s okay to run out and start buying porn. I just think it’s an interesting article that might be related to the topic of this post, on some level.
Comment by Steve M. — October 24, 2006 @ 12:37 pm