Hamas Q&A
The BBC has an assessment of what a Hamas victory in the Palestinian elections means. In my mind:
Best Case Scenario — Like Sinn Fein (the political wing of the IRA) in Northern Ireland, a taste of political power has a moderating influence on Hamas; the peace process resumes and a militant organisation softens its stance towards Israel; America and Israel take a patient approach.
Worst Case Scenario — Hamas continues its suicidal armed struggle with Israel; Likud wins the Israeli elections, blaming Sharon/Kadima for Hamas’ victory; Israel bears right; America refuses to deal with the Palestinians.
Who, in Hamas, is going to play Gerry Adams?
Good news: clear rejection of the kleptocrat Arafat and his two-faced, inept, and corrupt legacy.
Bad news: clear rejection of co-existence with Israel, at least for the moment.
And the pressure is on to shut down the Iranian nuke program…
Comment by Mogget — January 26, 2006 @ 1:08 pm
Good question, Mogget, re: Adams. I don’t know. The dust will settle soon. I just hope that no-one makes any sudden moves. As Bush would say, “democracy’s on the march.” Yikes.
Comment by Ronan — January 26, 2006 @ 1:37 pm
As Bush would say, “democracy’s on the march.†Yikes.
Hm, yes, well there’s :
forward, march
to the rear, march
right/left turn march
right/left flank, march
but I think for the Mid-east it’s gonna be “route step, march” for quite awhile.
Comment by Mogget — January 26, 2006 @ 1:50 pm
The big possible benefit is that this will force Hamas to temper its views. It might take a few months, but the realities of negotiation and running government will have an effect. The bigger issue is the internal tensions between Hamas and Fatah and what will occur. I personally think there really is a danger of an internal civil war.
I’ve heard mixed things about how this will affect the Israeli elections. We’ll see.
I think its way too early to say much. I think we’ll have to wait at least six months to see what shakes out.
Of course despite all the rhetoric people have been negotiating with Hamas in private for a long time. And despite their rhetoric Hamas has actually largely abided by the cease fire (perhaps better than Fatah in certain ways). The big issue has always been Islamic Jihad and other smaller organizations. It will be interesting to see what the relationship between Hamas and those groups will end up being if Hamas has more influence in the government. (Remember that the President is still from Fatah)
Comment by Clark Goble — January 26, 2006 @ 2:20 pm
With hamas dominating the elections in Palestinian Israel , this means The European Union will be thickly involved now, It will force the EU to bring a quick army together to guarentee Israels security from the Palestinians. Probably The nato troops will come to Israel untill the European Union puts together their own Army. This I believe will lead to a Land for peace deal between the Israelis, Palestinians and many.
Stan L Bowman Jr
http://israndjer.blogspot.com (EVENTS IN TIME)
Comment by Stan — January 26, 2006 @ 3:07 pm