Las Vegas Bowl Predictions
BYU plays Cal tomorrow night in the sold-out Las Vegas bowl. Lots of writers have lots of things to say about it. I don’t have much to say though. I will say that it is likely that Cal is the third best team this BYU squad will face this year (after BC and Notre Dame but ahead of Utah and TCU, I imagine). I suspect that BYU will have to play better than they did against Utah, and perhaps their best game of the year in order to win this game.
For me, the big questions that this game will help answer are:
1. How good is Bronco at preparing a team for a bowl game?
Despite how great Lavell Edwards was, his bowl record was unimpressive. I think BYU has only won 7 bowl games in the past 23 or so tries. Bronco was part of the New Mexico program that went to a rare bowl game and upset a BCS team a few years ago. BYU fans are hoping that winning bowl games is part of what Bronco brings to the program.
2. How much difference does that new, expensive indoor practice facility make?
One excuse BYU had for losing all those bowl games is that it is really hard to practice football outdoors in Provo in December. After building a 50 million dollar indoor practice facility that excuse is gone. BYU fans hope that Bronco makes it a habit of going to bowl games every year — but if he does he has fewer excuses for losing than Lavell had.
Prediction
I’m going to show my true blue colors and predict a BYU win on Thursday. The BYU pass defense is undoubtedly still a major weakness but the offense has proven to be one of the best in the country. Therefore I expect it will take 40 or so point to win this game.
BYU 40, Cal 34
What’s your prediction?
Geoff,
Your optimism is even greater than Dick Harmon’s on this one as he predicted a loss.
I really don’t know what to expect. I think I agree that Cal is the third best team that we have played this year but I am not sure if that makes them closer to BC or closer to TCU. If a solid defense shows up, Beck has his head in the game, and Anae uses Curtis Brown, it will be a competitive game. I think you are right that it will take 40 to win.
I think the BYU secondary gets torched by another back up quarterback and the Cal defense plays a solid game. Sorry to be pessimistic:
Cal 42 – BYU 35
The worst part about it all is that a loss means that this was not a winning season.
Comment by Matt S. — December 21, 2005 @ 3:44 pm
Cal was disappointing this season mainly due to injuries. They have two VERY talented running backs that I believe are back and healthy. The way BYU has been playing is encouraging but I think Cal is a little stronger:
Cal 34 BYU 24
Comment by Tim J. — December 21, 2005 @ 3:55 pm
Matt and Tim,
It is probably prudent to pick Cal. My pick his clearly driven by my bias. But I figure it is a bowl game so I can throw caution to the wind.
My hope is that BYU will be more motivated than Cal, with the disappointment of playing in the Las Vegas bowl against a mediocre looking MWC team draining the enthusiasm from the Bears. Further I am counting on Bronco being able to make good on his mantra of getting better every game. That is probably asking for too much, but a Coug fan can always hope right?
Comment by Geoff J — December 21, 2005 @ 5:48 pm
I’ll be on a plane so I won’t get to see it. But at this point it’s hard to care that much anymore. The important thing is that the Seahawks are playing the Colts on Saturday in a primer for the Superbowl
Comment by Rusty — December 21, 2005 @ 7:43 pm
From Sooner Nation,
Don’t speak ill of TCU. It doesn’t pay.
Cal by ten.
Comment by D-Train — December 21, 2005 @ 11:35 pm
37-35 Cougs. The Triumph of Hope over Experience.
Comment by Adam Greenwood — December 22, 2005 @ 9:40 am
Let’s be realistic here. BYU has been lame for quite a while. I hope I’m wrong, but my mind says:
Cal 49 BYU 17
Comment by Eric — December 22, 2005 @ 12:12 pm
I hope I’m wrong in predicting BYU shows promise, but final score is Cal 42 / BYU 28.
BTW, truth in advertising: “What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas”
What happens in Vegas?
– Gambling.
What stays in Vegas?
– The $$$ you gambled.
Comment by manaen — December 22, 2005 @ 2:01 pm
Guess I’ll watch part of the game. The 49 to 17 score seems too likely though.
I had missed the 50 million indoor practice facility. Ouch.
Comment by Stephen M (Ethesis) — December 22, 2005 @ 2:16 pm
Hi all.
BYU will lose by 2 plus TD’s. They just do not have what it takes in Bowl Games. There are lots of theories about why but none of them can really explain why BYU loses its MOJO in bowl games. The one exception is the Kstate game back in the mid 1990′s. That game was awesome.
So that 50MM is where all my tithing money went for my entire life eh???? Just kidding.
Comment by Bbell — December 22, 2005 @ 3:55 pm
AAAAAHHHH! I forgot the game was tonight and only caught the last 5 minutes on the radio.
Of course after that loss, can I point out that my initial predictions for the season were dead on accurate? Thank you very much.
So now the recriminations begin. It had begun looking like Bronco had beat the Crowton legacy of finishing weak – that is until this game and the Ute game. It sounded like a lot of the problems tonight were coaching issues as much as just having some weak defensive players. Should Bronco bring in a dedicated defensive coach? Should he change his defensive strategy to accommodate the realities of recruiting for BYU? Will the defense look better next year? (It’d be hard to look worse)
Comment by Clark Goble — December 23, 2005 @ 12:28 am
Geez. Why can’t Mormons tackle? Oh my heck.
Comment by Tom — December 23, 2005 @ 12:30 am
That said, what a great game! I am not ashamed tonight. The offense was about as good as you can ask them to be. Three 90-plus yard drives in one game is quite a feat. Beck made some great throws and not many dumb ones. He was on target much more often than not.
The defense can’t fetchin’ tackle. It’s been the same problem for as long as I can remember. But they stepped up in the fourth quarter and gave he team a chance. If only they would’ve prevented that TD at the end of the first half . . .
Comment by Tom — December 23, 2005 @ 12:40 am
My nomination for weirdest outcome of the game is here.
Comment by manaen — December 23, 2005 @ 12:34 pm
Not a bad effort overall. 40 woulda done it for us. The tackling was indeed atrocious but BYU still kept it very close. Fun game to watch.
Clark – CongratuIations on your prediction of the team going .500! I actually don’t expect a lot of recriminations against Bronco for this loss. Cal clearly had more talent than BYU but BYU nearly sent it to overtime anyway. I think the #1 issue for BYU is recruiting right now. The Cougs need some decent defensive backs if they hope to win the MWC next year. However, if the offense can hold even and the defense can improve (especially the DBs) I can see a season with 8+ wins next year.
Comment by Geoff J — December 23, 2005 @ 12:55 pm
We get a lot of players back next year and think we could make a run. I thought we were going to end up getting blown out but we kept fighting and definitely see a lot of progress from last year–though that’s not saying much.
Comment by Tim J. — December 23, 2005 @ 3:04 pm
My prediction:
BYU will not have a seriously good winning season until it reinstitutes the Wrestling program.
When an LDS college cancels the one sport with real, historical ties to Joseph Smith, their football teams will become cursed.
This just confirms my theory.
Comment by Ivan Wolfe — December 23, 2005 @ 6:41 pm
BYU will not have a seriously good winning season until it reinstitutes the Wrestling program.
When an LDS college cancels the one sport with real, historical ties to Joseph Smith, their football teams will become cursed.
I like the theory at least
Comment by Stephen M (Ethesis) — December 23, 2005 @ 8:29 pm
Lol!
Classic comment Ivan.
Comment by Geoff J — December 24, 2005 @ 1:33 pm
Geoff, I actually have heard a lot of criticism of Bronco for the defense – mainly for sticking to a defensive strategy that requires fairly strong atheletes. And we just don’t have them. So a lot of people think that the design of the program would work great if we could recruit extremely good players – but many think we can’t. At least not consistenty.
Comment by Clark Goble — December 27, 2005 @ 4:56 pm
Funny that BYU’s most successful sport, racquetball, specifically the women’s team, is virtually inisible on the university’s website.
The women’s racquetball team has been NCAA champions for most of the past decade and the men aren’t that shabby either.
Comment by Jesse — December 28, 2005 @ 4:25 pm
21
Thanks, Jesse
Now I have something to quell my USC-alum-dad’s football barbs: RACQUETBALL!
Comment by manaen — December 29, 2005 @ 4:04 pm
I’m glad the $50M great and spacious football building has paid off…
Comment by queuno — January 2, 2006 @ 10:26 pm
ah – yes, the BYU building that was going to “benefit all of campus” even though non-atheletes who tried to enter were instantly incinerated and/or expelled.
I exaggerate, of course. They were finished after I left BYU. I just go by what my brother tells me.
Though I wonder if the new building freed up room in the old building for general purpose weight lifting? BYU’s general use weight rooms were pathetically small, always overcrowded and full of “well-used” equipment. There was an athelete weight room downstairs that was easily double the size of the two general use room upstairs.
Anyone know what’s up with that now?
Comment by Ivan Wolfe — January 3, 2006 @ 8:12 pm
Ivan, if you wanted to use the gym equipment back in the day you basically had to sign up for a class so as to be guaranteed access. Having said that though there are so many gyms around Provo with so cheap of prices that I think complaining about BYU gyms is a tad silly. Go to Gold’s or 24 Hour. Gold’s even has a $9 fee if you go at non-peak hours. They were quite the social hangouts too.
Comment by Clark Goble — January 4, 2006 @ 12:22 pm
BTW – while its fun to criticize the athletic facilities, I’d just note that most laboratories are also considered for the benefit of campus but are nearly impossible for most students and professors to enter. Try going to the underground lab in the Eyring building for instance. (There is a huge giant underground lab beneath the building filled with clean rooms, nuclear accelerators, machine shops and other fun equipment – I used to hang out and study there all the time.)
Comment by Clark Goble — January 4, 2006 @ 12:46 pm
Amen on the need to increae the size of the student weight rooms. I spent a LOT of time there during my five years at BYU and they definitely needed to be expanded. Always bugged me to walk by the athletes’ weight room, which was never more than half full, at most, and then go up the stairs to wait in line behind ten guys to get into the weight room for the great unwashed.
Comment by Jesse — January 4, 2006 @ 3:47 pm
Clark -
The gyms in Provo were cheap, yes. Still, one had to have money to use them. Since I was running a small deficit all my time in Provo (not a big one, but I had to get several student loans), other gyms in Provo weren’t an option.
Luckily, I tended to use the weight roooms at BYU during non-peak hours. It was only ever a problem at the beginning of the semester when everyone had a goal to get in shape (a goal that usually vanished by the third week, I noticed).
Comment by Ivan Wolfe — January 4, 2006 @ 5:53 pm
Hey Ivan, I hear you. I had a few semesters where I was living on Ramen noodles and vitamin pills. So I definitely didn’t have a gym membership until after graduation. However in hindsight I might have done so.
My point is though that I think some of the comments on the athletic facilities are a tad misplaced. Lots of people would love to access shop equipment too, but most such facilities are as restricted as the athletic facilities.
BTW – how about that USC game tonight, eh?
Comment by Clark Goble — January 5, 2006 @ 2:04 am
Well, I don’t actually follow sports, so I didn’t watch the game.
However, the loud shouting and what sounded like gunfire last night let me know that UT likely won.
Comment by Ivan Wolfe — January 5, 2006 @ 12:26 pm